May Town Center I- The Planning Commission Staff Report

This is the first of two analysis of the Planning Department's staff reports on the May Town Center. This first analysis deals only with the land use policy change. I put it first because it is the most important and significant of the two. If it is approved and the re-zoning is rejected, we shall continue to see more land use battles as the developer and property owner seek to find some project they can get approved. Makes me tired just thinking about it. If this plan amendment is disapproved it shall put to rest the debate.

Staff recommends that the MPC adopt a land use plan that allows the development of May Town Center. All other land use policies in the Scottsboro/Bells Bend area will remain rural in character. The reason given for these wildly divergent policies in one small area is that it strikes a balance between land conservation and economic development.

There is little in the way of hard data in this report to support the staff's contention that May Town Center will bring "new businesses, jobs and increased revenues." We will find some of that in the rezoning report. More on that later but let me preview it by telling you that economic development does not follow real estate development. It's the other way around. When real estate development gets out in front of business and economic activity we have what is traditionally referred to that as a bubble. (See Panic of 1837, housing markets of 1920's, 2000's)

The land conservation policy for those areas outside of the May Town footprint is doomed for failure and is fundamentally unfair. If I may paraphrase the report it basically says that the developers and property owners of May Town - whoever that may ultimately be - get to make piles of money but everyone else gets to stick to farming.

We may buy into this "compromise" today. But, Council and the Planning Commission are traditionally very fair people. So, a few weeks or months or years down the road, those folks that are tired of farming will ask to change the policy and rezone for a Mapco or a little strip center or something else so they too can make piles of money. And we will agree.

Ahh, but the Planning Staff will say "Pshaw! that farmer can do that today." Indeed he could, but he would find few people interested in stopping at his Mapco for coffee and a newspaper because right now there just aren't a lot of people to do so. So, our farmer will quickly conclude that farming is less risky and more profitable than a building that isn't likely to have a tenant. If something really big is built down the road, his calculus will change significantly. Risk may be lower because the possibility exists that more people will be driving by his Mapco. Reward may be higher because many of them will need a cup of coffee after driving from Ashland City.

"Hogwash! the steep slopes and floodplain will make it hard to develop" the Planning staff shall declare apparently because they have not been to Green Hills or Bellevue lately. Development of less desirable land (floodplain, floodway, steep slopes, next to TVA transmission lines, etc) doesn't happen unless the economic value of the use exceeds by a significant amount the cost of mitigating the undesirable feature. So, the Reserve in Bellevue cut down an entire hillside to accommodate a multifamily development. Just around the corner from me a high end condo project is slated for construction in the Richland Creek floodplain. It will be erected in concrete piers so that when it floods, the water will wash under and around the building. None of these developments would happen but for the fact that the value of the use and the profit to be made can acommodate the significant costs to mitigate the site's problems.

Today, Scottsboro and Bells Bend property owners probably see little reason to alter the landscape with the engineering that might be required because the cost of doing so makes no sense. Now, if something really big happens to get built down the road, the economics change and all that engineering might become more viable.

Now, I tend to think that May Town Center is the last gasp of a Gilded Age, Fin de Siecle era and is not likely to begin anytime soon. But if and when we return to an era of large scale suburban development, the arguments are likely to be the same. Unfair just doesn't go away that easily.